{
    "url": "https://www.bibliotecapleyades.net/ciencia3/ciencia_climatechange131.htm",
    "content": " \n \n\n\n\n \n\r\n\t\t\t \n\n\n\n\n\n\r\n\t\t\tby Stephen Johnson\nAugust 29, \r\n\t\t\t2018 \n\nfrom\r\n\t\t\t\nBigThink Website\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\r\n\t\t\tPixabay Commons\n\n\n\n\r\n\t\t\tThe era of cheap energy is coming to an end and societies will need \r\n\t\t\tto reshape energy consumption and infrastructure or face \r\n\t\t\tconsequences, warns a new scientific background paper issued to\r\n\t\t\t\nthe United Nations.\n\r\n\t\t\tThe paper (Global \r\n\t\t\tSustainable Development Report 2019 by Group of \r\n\t\t\tIndependent Scientists - Transforming the Economy) was written by biophysicists with \r\n\t\t\tthe BIOS Research Unit in Finland who were asked by the U.N. \r\n\t\t\tto contribute research for the U.N. Global Sustainable \r\n\t\t\tDevelopment Report (GSDR), \r\n\t\t\twhich will be released in 2019.\n\r\n\t\t\tIt contains some sobering predictions. \n\r\n\t\t\t \n\nThe team argues that \r\n\t\t\ttoday's \"dominant economic theories\" and conceptions of modern \r\n\t\t\tcapitalism are inadequate because they falsely assume societies will \r\n\t\t\thave continued access to cheap energy, like fossil fuels. \n\r\n\t\t\t \n\nAlso, these theories \r\n\t\t\tgenerally don't factor in sink costs - meaning costs that can't be \r\n\t\t\trecovered - like\r\n\t\t\t\nclimate change, and they fail to \r\n\t\t\taccount for the potential sociopolitical consequences that could \r\n\t\t\tresult from continued unchecked consumption and growth.\n\n\"Because economies \r\n\t\t\t\tare for the first time in human history shifting to energy \r\n\t\t\t\tsources that are less energy efficient, production of usable \r\n\t\t\t\tenergy (exergy) will require more, not less, effort on the part \r\n\t\t\t\tof societies to power both basic and non-basic human \r\n\t\t\t\tactivities,\" the scientists wrote.\n\nThe team called for \r\n\t\t\tsocieties to start thinking about new models of governance \r\n\t\t\tand economics.\n\n\"It can be safely \r\n\t\t\t\tsaid that no widely applicable economic models have been \r\n\t\t\t\tdeveloped specifically for the upcoming era,\" they wrote, \r\n\t\t\t\tsuggesting that the global economy is approaching a new era.\r\n\t\t\t\t\n \n\n\"Our focus is on the \r\n\t\t\t\ttransition period, the next few decades.\"\n\nWhat needs to be done?\r\n\t\t\t\n\r\n\t\t\t \n\nThe scientists \r\n\t\t\thighlighted a few key issues:\r\n \n\nUse \r\n\t\t\t\tless energy and transform energy infrastructure.\n\r\n\t\t\t\tRenewables might help alleviate the effects of climate change, \r\n\t\t\t\tbut they currently have a low\r\n\t\t\t\t\nEROI (energy return on \r\n\t\t\t\tinvestment), meaning it costs more to implement renewables than \r\n\t\t\t\tit does to use fossil fuels. \n \n\nThe team predicted it \r\n\t\t\t\twill be \"extremely difficult, if not impossible\" to meet \r\n\t\t\t\tcurrent or growing levels of energy need in the next few decades \r\n\t\t\t\twith renewables or other low-carbon solutions. \n \n\nBecause of this stark \r\n\t\t\t\treality, \n\n\"there is \r\n\t\t\t\t\tconsiderable pressure to lower total energy use.\"\n \n\n\nTravel less \r\n\t\t\t\tand more efficiently\n\r\n\t\t\t\tWalking, biking and electrified public transportation should all \r\n\t\t\t\tbe emphasized in the world's cities, the scientists wrote.\r\n\t\t\t\t\n \n\nThis will require,\n\n\"changes in city \r\n\t\t\t\t\tplanning\" and \"in vehicle production, in transport \r\n\t\t\t\t\tinfrastructure such as railways, roads and charging \r\n\t\t\t\t\tstations, and in energy production and storage,\"\n\n...in addition to \r\n\t\t\t\treductions in international freight transport and aviation.\n\r\n \n\n\nSocieties \r\n\t\t\t\tshould produce more of their own food\n\r\n\t\t\t\tBoth affluent and developing countries should become more\nself-sufficient in food production because it will \r\n\t\t\t\tbe,\n\n\"too risky to \r\n\t\t\t\t\trely on the functioning of only a few main food production \r\n\t\t\t\t\tareas in the future,\" the team wrote, also suggesting that \r\n\t\t\t\t\t\"dairy and meat should make way for largely plant-based \r\n\t\t\t\t\tdiets.\"\n \n \n\nBuild long-lasting \r\n\t\t\t\twood houses\n\n\"The construction \r\n\t\t\t\t\tindustry is currently dominated by concrete and steel, whose \r\n\t\t\t\t\tmanufacturing and other life-cycle processes are very \r\n\t\t\t\t\tenergy-intensive and cause significant climate emissions and \r\n\t\t\t\t\tother types of waste,\" the team wrote. \n\nIn contrast, \r\n\t\t\t\tlong-lasting wood buildings can provide better carbon storage.\n\r\n\t\t\t \n\n\n\n\n\r\n\t\t\tSource: \n\n\n\nWorld Scientists' Warning to Humanity: A \r\n\t\t\tSecond Notice\r\n \n\n\r\n\t\t\tAchieving these changes will require unprecedented action, the \r\n\t\t\tscientists said.\n\n\"Market-based action \r\n\t\t\t\twill not suffice - even with a high carbon price. There must be \r\n\t\t\t\ta comprehensive vision and closely coordinated plans. \n\n \n\nOtherwise, a rapid \r\n\t\t\t\tsystem-level transformation toward global sustainability goals \r\n\t\t\t\tis inconceivable.\"\n\nThe team wrote that each \r\n\t\t\tsociety would have to develop its own solution for navigating the \r\n\t\t\ttransition into a sustainable economy.\n\r\n\t\t\t \n\nHowever, those changes \r\n\t\t\twill probably require government intervention in every case.\n\n\"The most likely \r\n\t\t\t\toption for initiating transitions to sustainability \r\n\t\t\t\twould be for a group of progressive states to take the lead.\r\n\t\t\t\t\n \n\nThis would require \r\n\t\t\t\teconomic thinking that enables large public investment programs \r\n\t\t\t\ton the one hand and strong regulation and environmental caps on \r\n\t\t\t\tthe other. \n \n\nIn the modern global \r\n\t\t\t\teconomy, states are the only actors that have the legitimacy and \r\n\t\t\t\tcapacity to fund and organize large-scale transitions.\"\n\nThe Finland team's paper \r\n\t\t\tcomes less than a year after some 15,000 scientists with the \r\n\t\t\tAlliance of World Scientists published a 'Warning \r\n\t\t\tto Humanity' that described various ways in which human \r\n\t\t\tactivity is eroding the biosphere.\n\r\n\t\t\tThe scientists offered five broad solutions at the time:\n\nWe must bring \r\n\t\t\t\t\tenvironmentally damaging activities under control to restore \r\n\t\t\t\t\tand protect the integrity of the earth's systems we depend \r\n\t\t\t\t\ton. \n \n\nWe must, for \r\n\t\t\t\t\texample, move away from fossil fuels to more benign, \r\n\t\t\t\t\tinexhaustible\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\nenergy sources to cut \r\n\t\t\t\t\tgreenhouse gas emissions and the pollution of our air and \r\n\t\t\t\t\twater. \n \n\nPriority must be \r\n\t\t\t\t\tgiven to the development of energy sources matched to \r\n\t\t\t\t\tthird-world needs - small scale and relatively \r\n\t\t\t\t\teasy to implement. \n \n\nWe must halt \r\n\t\t\t\t\tdeforestation, injury to and loss of agricultural land, and \r\n\t\t\t\t\tthe loss of terrestrial and marine plant and animal species.\n\n\r\n \n\nWe must manage \r\n\t\t\t\t\tresources crucial to human welfare more effectively. \n\n \n\nWe must give high \r\n\t\t\t\t\tpriority to efficient use of energy, water, and other \r\n\t\t\t\t\tmaterials, including expansion of conservation and \r\n\t\t\t\t\trecycling.\n\n\r\n \n\nWe must stabilize \r\n\t\t\t\t\tpopulation. \n \n\nThis will be \r\n\t\t\t\t\tpossible only if all nations recognize that it requires \r\n\t\t\t\t\timproved social and economic conditions, and the adoption of \r\n\t\t\t\t\teffective, voluntary family planning.\n\n\r\n \n\nWe must reduce \r\n\t\t\t\t\tand eventually eliminate poverty. \n\n\"I believe we \r\n\t\t\t\t\t\tabsolutely should have such bold goals for our country,\" \r\n\t\t\t\t\t\tsays the director of The Earth Institute Jeffrey Sachs.\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\n \n\n\"By 2030 \r\n\t\t\t\t\t\tlet's\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\ncut the poverty at \r\n\t\t\t\t\t\tleast by half.\"\n \n\nWe must ensure \r\n\t\t\t\t\tsexual equality, and guarantee women control over their own \r\n\t\t\t\t\treproductive decisions. \n\n\"As women and \r\n\t\t\t\t\t\tgirls get better educated, they have fewer kids, and the \r\n\t\t\t\t\t\tkids they do have more resources so they're better taken \r\n\t\t\t\t\t\tcare of and they are more successful,\"\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\nsays Bill Nye.\n \n\n\"So what we \r\n\t\t\t\t\t\twant to do, in my world over here in science education, \r\n\t\t\t\t\t\tis get women and girls around the world as educated as \r\n\t\t\t\t\t\tbest we can as fast as we can so that there will be more \r\n\t\t\t\t\t\tresources per person in the coming years.\"\n \n \n \n\n\r\n\t\t\tVideo\n \n \n\n\n\n \n \n\r\n\t\t\t \n\n\n\nReturn \r\n\t\t\tto Climate Changes\n\n\n\nReturn \r\n\t\t\tto Capitalism is a Collapsing System - What's Next?\n\n \n "
}