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{
 "cells": [
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 47,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "import pandas as pd\n",
    "import matplotlib.pyplot as plt\n",
    "import seaborn as sns\n",
    "import numpy as np\n",
    "sns.set_style(\"darkgrid\")"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 48,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "error_by_markets = pd.read_parquet('../data/error_by_markets.parquet')"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 49,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "Index(['tool', 'request_month_year_week', 'market_creator', '0', '1',\n",
       "       'error_perc', 'total_requests'],\n",
       "      dtype='object')"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 49,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "error_by_markets.columns"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 51,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/html": [
       "<div>\n",
       "<style scoped>\n",
       "    .dataframe tbody tr th:only-of-type {\n",
       "        vertical-align: middle;\n",
       "    }\n",
       "\n",
       "    .dataframe tbody tr th {\n",
       "        vertical-align: top;\n",
       "    }\n",
       "\n",
       "    .dataframe thead th {\n",
       "        text-align: right;\n",
       "    }\n",
       "</style>\n",
       "<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
       "  <thead>\n",
       "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th>tool</th>\n",
       "      <th>request_month_year_week</th>\n",
       "      <th>market_creator</th>\n",
       "      <th>0</th>\n",
       "      <th>1</th>\n",
       "      <th>error_perc</th>\n",
       "      <th>total_requests</th>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </thead>\n",
       "  <tbody>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>355</th>\n",
       "      <td>superforcaster</td>\n",
       "      <td>Dec-22</td>\n",
       "      <td>all</td>\n",
       "      <td>1087.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>61.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>5.313589</td>\n",
       "      <td>1148.0</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>356</th>\n",
       "      <td>superforcaster</td>\n",
       "      <td>Dec-22</td>\n",
       "      <td>pearl</td>\n",
       "      <td>75.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>10.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>11.764706</td>\n",
       "      <td>85.0</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>357</th>\n",
       "      <td>superforcaster</td>\n",
       "      <td>Dec-29</td>\n",
       "      <td>quickstart</td>\n",
       "      <td>678.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>59.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>8.005427</td>\n",
       "      <td>737.0</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>358</th>\n",
       "      <td>superforcaster</td>\n",
       "      <td>Dec-29</td>\n",
       "      <td>all</td>\n",
       "      <td>705.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>60.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>7.843137</td>\n",
       "      <td>765.0</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>359</th>\n",
       "      <td>superforcaster</td>\n",
       "      <td>Dec-29</td>\n",
       "      <td>pearl</td>\n",
       "      <td>27.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>3.571429</td>\n",
       "      <td>28.0</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </tbody>\n",
       "</table>\n",
       "</div>"
      ],
      "text/plain": [
       "               tool request_month_year_week market_creator       0     1  \\\n",
       "355  superforcaster                  Dec-22            all  1087.0  61.0   \n",
       "356  superforcaster                  Dec-22          pearl    75.0  10.0   \n",
       "357  superforcaster                  Dec-29     quickstart   678.0  59.0   \n",
       "358  superforcaster                  Dec-29            all   705.0  60.0   \n",
       "359  superforcaster                  Dec-29          pearl    27.0   1.0   \n",
       "\n",
       "     error_perc  total_requests  \n",
       "355    5.313589          1148.0  \n",
       "356   11.764706            85.0  \n",
       "357    8.005427           737.0  \n",
       "358    7.843137           765.0  \n",
       "359    3.571429            28.0  "
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 51,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "error_by_markets.tail()"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 46,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "error_total = (\n",
    "    error_by_markets.groupby([\"request_month_year_week\", \"market_creator\"], sort=False)\n",
    "    .agg({\"total_requests\": \"sum\", '1': \"sum\", '0': \"sum\"})\n",
    "    .reset_index()\n",
    ")\n"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": []
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": []
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 32,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "new_tools = pd.read_parquet('../data/new_tools.parquet')\n"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 33,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "155789"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 33,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "len(new_tools)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 34,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "Index(['request_id', 'request_block', 'request_time', 'tx_hash',\n",
       "       'prompt_request', 'tool', 'nonce', 'trader_address', 'deliver_block',\n",
       "       'error', 'error_message', 'prompt_response', 'mech_address', 'p_yes',\n",
       "       'p_no', 'confidence', 'info_utility', 'vote', 'win_probability',\n",
       "       'market_creator'],\n",
       "      dtype='object')"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 34,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "new_tools.columns"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 35,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "<class 'pandas.core.frame.DataFrame'>\n",
      "RangeIndex: 155789 entries, 0 to 155788\n",
      "Data columns (total 20 columns):\n",
      " #   Column           Non-Null Count   Dtype              \n",
      "---  ------           --------------   -----              \n",
      " 0   request_id       155789 non-null  object             \n",
      " 1   request_block    155789 non-null  object             \n",
      " 2   request_time     155789 non-null  datetime64[ns, UTC]\n",
      " 3   tx_hash          155789 non-null  object             \n",
      " 4   prompt_request   155789 non-null  object             \n",
      " 5   tool             155789 non-null  object             \n",
      " 6   nonce            155789 non-null  object             \n",
      " 7   trader_address   155789 non-null  object             \n",
      " 8   deliver_block    155789 non-null  object             \n",
      " 9   error            155789 non-null  int64              \n",
      " 10  error_message    61690 non-null   object             \n",
      " 11  prompt_response  131002 non-null  object             \n",
      " 12  mech_address     131002 non-null  object             \n",
      " 13  p_yes            94099 non-null   float64            \n",
      " 14  p_no             94099 non-null   float64            \n",
      " 15  confidence       94099 non-null   float64            \n",
      " 16  info_utility     94099 non-null   float64            \n",
      " 17  vote             66870 non-null   object             \n",
      " 18  win_probability  94099 non-null   float64            \n",
      " 19  market_creator   155789 non-null  object             \n",
      "dtypes: datetime64[ns, UTC](1), float64(5), int64(1), object(13)\n",
      "memory usage: 23.8+ MB\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "new_tools.info()"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 36,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "request_id         5585662306487809905791879720381993204173062765...\n",
       "request_block                                               37672194\n",
       "request_time                               2024-12-23 12:37:05+00:00\n",
       "tx_hash            0x069f675e2cdfd328e9056901e5e79dcfa8cd981c95e3...\n",
       "prompt_request     Please take over the role of a Data Scientist ...\n",
       "tool                                              prediction-offline\n",
       "nonce                           a711182a-8641-428b-8908-ae773516f846\n",
       "trader_address            0x5d621d8bfcb57a70f4fde6e5484a54fa8127a858\n",
       "deliver_block                                               37672203\n",
       "error                                                              0\n",
       "error_message                                                   None\n",
       "prompt_response    \\nYou are an LLM inside a multi-agent system t...\n",
       "mech_address              0x5e1d1eb61e1164d5a50b28c575da73a29595dff7\n",
       "p_yes                                                            0.3\n",
       "p_no                                                             0.7\n",
       "confidence                                                       0.4\n",
       "info_utility                                                     0.0\n",
       "vote                                                              No\n",
       "win_probability                                                  0.7\n",
       "market_creator                                            quickstart\n",
       "Name: 0, dtype: object"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 36,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "new_tools.iloc[0]"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 37,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "Timestamp('2024-12-23 12:37:05+0000', tz='UTC')"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 37,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "new_tools.iloc[0].request_time"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 22,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "tools = pd.read_parquet('../tmp/tools.parquet')"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 30,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "Timestamp('2024-10-26 13:03:55+0000', tz='UTC')"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 30,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "tools.iloc[0].request_time"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 23,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "626382"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 23,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "len(tools)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 24,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/html": [
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       "    }\n",
       "</style>\n",
       "<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
       "  <thead>\n",
       "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th>request_id</th>\n",
       "      <th>request_block</th>\n",
       "      <th>prompt_request</th>\n",
       "      <th>tool</th>\n",
       "      <th>nonce</th>\n",
       "      <th>trader_address</th>\n",
       "      <th>deliver_block</th>\n",
       "      <th>error</th>\n",
       "      <th>error_message</th>\n",
       "      <th>prompt_response</th>\n",
       "      <th>...</th>\n",
       "      <th>confidence</th>\n",
       "      <th>info_utility</th>\n",
       "      <th>vote</th>\n",
       "      <th>win_probability</th>\n",
       "      <th>market_creator</th>\n",
       "      <th>title</th>\n",
       "      <th>currentAnswer</th>\n",
       "      <th>request_time</th>\n",
       "      <th>request_month_year</th>\n",
       "      <th>request_month_year_week</th>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </thead>\n",
       "  <tbody>\n",
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       "      <td>2024-10</td>\n",
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       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1</th>\n",
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       "      <td>Please take over the role of a Data Scientist ...</td>\n",
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       "      <td>2024-10-29 10:50:55+00:00</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024-10</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024-10-28/2024-11-03</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2</th>\n",
       "      <td>8204183583678326945661870665906374091080896102...</td>\n",
       "      <td>36756777</td>\n",
       "      <td>Please take over the role of a Data Scientist ...</td>\n",
       "      <td>claude-prediction-offline</td>\n",
       "      <td>e64fa0a7-a98b-4c95-ac1a-755d212a5b78</td>\n",
       "      <td>0x992448484862672eb95ca1c877cc43f935c389ce</td>\n",
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       "      <td>\\nYou are an LLM inside a multi-agent system t...</td>\n",
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       "      <td>0.6</td>\n",
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       "      <td>2024-10-28/2024-11-03</td>\n",
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       "      <th>3</th>\n",
       "      <td>1225398943131371197254748096595691861478679945...</td>\n",
       "      <td>36749393</td>\n",
       "      <td>Please take over the role of a Data Scientist ...</td>\n",
       "      <td>claude-prediction-offline</td>\n",
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       "      <td>36749408</td>\n",
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       "      <td>\\nYou are an LLM inside a multi-agent system t...</td>\n",
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       "      <td>0.1</td>\n",
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       "      <td>2024-10-21/2024-10-27</td>\n",
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       "</table>\n",
       "<p>5 rows × 23 columns</p>\n",
       "</div>"
      ],
      "text/plain": [
       "                                          request_id request_block  \\\n",
       "0  1065794400559258224527965821794720648636282516...      36701352   \n",
       "1  9015207976398091689774872599965107755141252481...      36749933   \n",
       "2  8204183583678326945661870665906374091080896102...      36756777   \n",
       "3  1225398943131371197254748096595691861478679945...      36749393   \n",
       "4  7954746357421406217625419969909404056225427053...      36701081   \n",
       "\n",
       "                                      prompt_request  \\\n",
       "0  Please take over the role of a Data Scientist ...   \n",
       "1  Please take over the role of a Data Scientist ...   \n",
       "2  Please take over the role of a Data Scientist ...   \n",
       "3  Please take over the role of a Data Scientist ...   \n",
       "4  Please take over the role of a Data Scientist ...   \n",
       "\n",
       "                        tool                                 nonce  \\\n",
       "0  claude-prediction-offline  fd5cfa7f-fb38-435b-b571-69f253397a69   \n",
       "1  claude-prediction-offline  a61c894b-fa0d-40d9-ab02-e512ef9dd7e6   \n",
       "2  claude-prediction-offline  e64fa0a7-a98b-4c95-ac1a-755d212a5b78   \n",
       "3  claude-prediction-offline  f84d34ae-3dd0-4d0c-a4d3-d8f28d25677c   \n",
       "4             superforcaster  1b609b7e-e0d2-4bb8-ad6b-7d0e6e6610b5   \n",
       "\n",
       "                               trader_address deliver_block  error  \\\n",
       "0  0x42cc3f5a30420e8964be3c18d0e560b10e8957fa      36701366      0   \n",
       "1  0xc84d1f9fc28ce5628f69cc138ba3092a036b8f69      36749986      0   \n",
       "2  0x992448484862672eb95ca1c877cc43f935c389ce      36756791      0   \n",
       "3  0x3de0f1a8d9c227af2e324dd92905bbf8bb852ff8      36749408      0   \n",
       "4  0x8dd0f0f64e575a356545d9ed096122a1887e64bf      36701099      0   \n",
       "\n",
       "  error_message                                    prompt_response  ...  \\\n",
       "0          None  \\nYou are an LLM inside a multi-agent system t...  ...   \n",
       "1          None  \\nYou are an LLM inside a multi-agent system t...  ...   \n",
       "2          None  \\nYou are an LLM inside a multi-agent system t...  ...   \n",
       "3          None  \\nYou are an LLM inside a multi-agent system t...  ...   \n",
       "4          None  \\nYou are an advanced AI system which has been...  ...   \n",
       "\n",
       "  confidence  info_utility  vote  win_probability  market_creator  \\\n",
       "0        0.6           0.2    No              0.7      quickstart   \n",
       "1        0.6           0.2    No              0.9      quickstart   \n",
       "2        0.6           0.2    No              0.7      quickstart   \n",
       "3        0.3           0.1  None              0.5      quickstart   \n",
       "4        0.6           0.4    No              0.7      quickstart   \n",
       "\n",
       "                                               title  currentAnswer  \\\n",
       "0  Will the Caspian Sea countries announce a join...             No   \n",
       "1  Will Iran launch another ballistic missile att...            Yes   \n",
       "2  Will the United Nations Security Council hold ...            Yes   \n",
       "3  Will the Bank of Japan issue a public statemen...            Yes   \n",
       "4  Will any new human rights organizations public...            Yes   \n",
       "\n",
       "               request_time request_month_year request_month_year_week  \n",
       "0 2024-10-26 13:03:55+00:00            2024-10   2024-10-21/2024-10-27  \n",
       "1 2024-10-29 10:50:55+00:00            2024-10   2024-10-28/2024-11-03  \n",
       "2 2024-10-29 20:41:55+00:00            2024-10   2024-10-28/2024-11-03  \n",
       "3 2024-10-29 10:02:45+00:00            2024-10   2024-10-28/2024-11-03  \n",
       "4 2024-10-26 12:40:25+00:00            2024-10   2024-10-21/2024-10-27  \n",
       "\n",
       "[5 rows x 23 columns]"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 24,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "tools.head()"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 5,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "request_id                 4650171020578125420345177840991368739117143085...\n",
       "request_block                                                       36626348\n",
       "prompt_request             Please take over the role of a Data Scientist ...\n",
       "tool                                                claude-prediction-online\n",
       "nonce                                   5a0e84af-fcc3-4015-b2c1-a390430d70ca\n",
       "trader_address                    0x1fe2b09de07475b1027b0c73a5bf52693b31a52e\n",
       "deliver_block                                                       36626364\n",
       "error                                                                      0\n",
       "error_message                                                           None\n",
       "prompt_response            \\nYou are an LLM inside a multi-agent system t...\n",
       "mech_address                      0x5e1d1eb61e1164d5a50b28c575da73a29595dff7\n",
       "p_yes                                                                    0.3\n",
       "p_no                                                                     0.7\n",
       "confidence                                                               0.6\n",
       "info_utility                                                             0.2\n",
       "vote                                                                      No\n",
       "win_probability                                                          0.7\n",
       "market_creator                                                         pearl\n",
       "title                      Will the US government make a public statement...\n",
       "currentAnswer                                                             No\n",
       "request_time                                       2024-10-22 00:56:35+00:00\n",
       "request_month_year                                                   2024-10\n",
       "request_month_year_week                                2024-10-21/2024-10-27\n",
       "Name: 0, dtype: object"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 5,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "tools.iloc[0]"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 38,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "merge_df = pd.concat([tools, new_tools], ignore_index=True)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 39,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
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       "      <th>request_block</th>\n",
       "      <th>prompt_request</th>\n",
       "      <th>tool</th>\n",
       "      <th>nonce</th>\n",
       "      <th>trader_address</th>\n",
       "      <th>deliver_block</th>\n",
       "      <th>error</th>\n",
       "      <th>error_message</th>\n",
       "      <th>prompt_response</th>\n",
       "      <th>...</th>\n",
       "      <th>info_utility</th>\n",
       "      <th>vote</th>\n",
       "      <th>win_probability</th>\n",
       "      <th>market_creator</th>\n",
       "      <th>title</th>\n",
       "      <th>currentAnswer</th>\n",
       "      <th>request_time</th>\n",
       "      <th>request_month_year</th>\n",
       "      <th>request_month_year_week</th>\n",
       "      <th>tx_hash</th>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </thead>\n",
       "  <tbody>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>0</th>\n",
       "      <td>1065794400559258224527965821794720648636282516...</td>\n",
       "      <td>36701352</td>\n",
       "      <td>Please take over the role of a Data Scientist ...</td>\n",
       "      <td>claude-prediction-offline</td>\n",
       "      <td>fd5cfa7f-fb38-435b-b571-69f253397a69</td>\n",
       "      <td>0x42cc3f5a30420e8964be3c18d0e560b10e8957fa</td>\n",
       "      <td>36701366</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>None</td>\n",
       "      <td>\\nYou are an LLM inside a multi-agent system t...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.2</td>\n",
       "      <td>No</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.7</td>\n",
       "      <td>quickstart</td>\n",
       "      <td>Will the Caspian Sea countries announce a join...</td>\n",
       "      <td>No</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024-10-26 13:03:55+00:00</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024-10</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024-10-21/2024-10-27</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1</th>\n",
       "      <td>9015207976398091689774872599965107755141252481...</td>\n",
       "      <td>36749933</td>\n",
       "      <td>Please take over the role of a Data Scientist ...</td>\n",
       "      <td>claude-prediction-offline</td>\n",
       "      <td>a61c894b-fa0d-40d9-ab02-e512ef9dd7e6</td>\n",
       "      <td>0xc84d1f9fc28ce5628f69cc138ba3092a036b8f69</td>\n",
       "      <td>36749986</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>None</td>\n",
       "      <td>\\nYou are an LLM inside a multi-agent system t...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.2</td>\n",
       "      <td>No</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.9</td>\n",
       "      <td>quickstart</td>\n",
       "      <td>Will Iran launch another ballistic missile att...</td>\n",
       "      <td>Yes</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024-10-29 10:50:55+00:00</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024-10</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024-10-28/2024-11-03</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2</th>\n",
       "      <td>8204183583678326945661870665906374091080896102...</td>\n",
       "      <td>36756777</td>\n",
       "      <td>Please take over the role of a Data Scientist ...</td>\n",
       "      <td>claude-prediction-offline</td>\n",
       "      <td>e64fa0a7-a98b-4c95-ac1a-755d212a5b78</td>\n",
       "      <td>0x992448484862672eb95ca1c877cc43f935c389ce</td>\n",
       "      <td>36756791</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>None</td>\n",
       "      <td>\\nYou are an LLM inside a multi-agent system t...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.2</td>\n",
       "      <td>No</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.7</td>\n",
       "      <td>quickstart</td>\n",
       "      <td>Will the United Nations Security Council hold ...</td>\n",
       "      <td>Yes</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024-10-29 20:41:55+00:00</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024-10</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024-10-28/2024-11-03</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>3</th>\n",
       "      <td>1225398943131371197254748096595691861478679945...</td>\n",
       "      <td>36749393</td>\n",
       "      <td>Please take over the role of a Data Scientist ...</td>\n",
       "      <td>claude-prediction-offline</td>\n",
       "      <td>f84d34ae-3dd0-4d0c-a4d3-d8f28d25677c</td>\n",
       "      <td>0x3de0f1a8d9c227af2e324dd92905bbf8bb852ff8</td>\n",
       "      <td>36749408</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>None</td>\n",
       "      <td>\\nYou are an LLM inside a multi-agent system t...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.1</td>\n",
       "      <td>None</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.5</td>\n",
       "      <td>quickstart</td>\n",
       "      <td>Will the Bank of Japan issue a public statemen...</td>\n",
       "      <td>Yes</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024-10-29 10:02:45+00:00</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024-10</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024-10-28/2024-11-03</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>4</th>\n",
       "      <td>7954746357421406217625419969909404056225427053...</td>\n",
       "      <td>36701081</td>\n",
       "      <td>Please take over the role of a Data Scientist ...</td>\n",
       "      <td>superforcaster</td>\n",
       "      <td>1b609b7e-e0d2-4bb8-ad6b-7d0e6e6610b5</td>\n",
       "      <td>0x8dd0f0f64e575a356545d9ed096122a1887e64bf</td>\n",
       "      <td>36701099</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>None</td>\n",
       "      <td>\\nYou are an advanced AI system which has been...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.4</td>\n",
       "      <td>No</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.7</td>\n",
       "      <td>quickstart</td>\n",
       "      <td>Will any new human rights organizations public...</td>\n",
       "      <td>Yes</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024-10-26 12:40:25+00:00</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024-10</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024-10-21/2024-10-27</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </tbody>\n",
       "</table>\n",
       "<p>5 rows × 24 columns</p>\n",
       "</div>"
      ],
      "text/plain": [
       "                                          request_id request_block  \\\n",
       "0  1065794400559258224527965821794720648636282516...      36701352   \n",
       "1  9015207976398091689774872599965107755141252481...      36749933   \n",
       "2  8204183583678326945661870665906374091080896102...      36756777   \n",
       "3  1225398943131371197254748096595691861478679945...      36749393   \n",
       "4  7954746357421406217625419969909404056225427053...      36701081   \n",
       "\n",
       "                                      prompt_request  \\\n",
       "0  Please take over the role of a Data Scientist ...   \n",
       "1  Please take over the role of a Data Scientist ...   \n",
       "2  Please take over the role of a Data Scientist ...   \n",
       "3  Please take over the role of a Data Scientist ...   \n",
       "4  Please take over the role of a Data Scientist ...   \n",
       "\n",
       "                        tool                                 nonce  \\\n",
       "0  claude-prediction-offline  fd5cfa7f-fb38-435b-b571-69f253397a69   \n",
       "1  claude-prediction-offline  a61c894b-fa0d-40d9-ab02-e512ef9dd7e6   \n",
       "2  claude-prediction-offline  e64fa0a7-a98b-4c95-ac1a-755d212a5b78   \n",
       "3  claude-prediction-offline  f84d34ae-3dd0-4d0c-a4d3-d8f28d25677c   \n",
       "4             superforcaster  1b609b7e-e0d2-4bb8-ad6b-7d0e6e6610b5   \n",
       "\n",
       "                               trader_address deliver_block  error  \\\n",
       "0  0x42cc3f5a30420e8964be3c18d0e560b10e8957fa      36701366      0   \n",
       "1  0xc84d1f9fc28ce5628f69cc138ba3092a036b8f69      36749986      0   \n",
       "2  0x992448484862672eb95ca1c877cc43f935c389ce      36756791      0   \n",
       "3  0x3de0f1a8d9c227af2e324dd92905bbf8bb852ff8      36749408      0   \n",
       "4  0x8dd0f0f64e575a356545d9ed096122a1887e64bf      36701099      0   \n",
       "\n",
       "  error_message                                    prompt_response  ...  \\\n",
       "0          None  \\nYou are an LLM inside a multi-agent system t...  ...   \n",
       "1          None  \\nYou are an LLM inside a multi-agent system t...  ...   \n",
       "2          None  \\nYou are an LLM inside a multi-agent system t...  ...   \n",
       "3          None  \\nYou are an LLM inside a multi-agent system t...  ...   \n",
       "4          None  \\nYou are an advanced AI system which has been...  ...   \n",
       "\n",
       "  info_utility  vote  win_probability  market_creator  \\\n",
       "0          0.2    No              0.7      quickstart   \n",
       "1          0.2    No              0.9      quickstart   \n",
       "2          0.2    No              0.7      quickstart   \n",
       "3          0.1  None              0.5      quickstart   \n",
       "4          0.4    No              0.7      quickstart   \n",
       "\n",
       "                                               title currentAnswer  \\\n",
       "0  Will the Caspian Sea countries announce a join...            No   \n",
       "1  Will Iran launch another ballistic missile att...           Yes   \n",
       "2  Will the United Nations Security Council hold ...           Yes   \n",
       "3  Will the Bank of Japan issue a public statemen...           Yes   \n",
       "4  Will any new human rights organizations public...           Yes   \n",
       "\n",
       "               request_time request_month_year request_month_year_week tx_hash  \n",
       "0 2024-10-26 13:03:55+00:00            2024-10   2024-10-21/2024-10-27     NaN  \n",
       "1 2024-10-29 10:50:55+00:00            2024-10   2024-10-28/2024-11-03     NaN  \n",
       "2 2024-10-29 20:41:55+00:00            2024-10   2024-10-28/2024-11-03     NaN  \n",
       "3 2024-10-29 10:02:45+00:00            2024-10   2024-10-28/2024-11-03     NaN  \n",
       "4 2024-10-26 12:40:25+00:00            2024-10   2024-10-21/2024-10-27     NaN  \n",
       "\n",
       "[5 rows x 24 columns]"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 39,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "merge_df.head()"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 28,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "merge_df.drop(columns=\"tx_hash\", inplace=True)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 40,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "merge_df.to_parquet(\"../tmp/tools.parquet\", index=False)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": []
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 4,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "tool\n",
       "claude-prediction-offline                    110152\n",
       "claude-prediction-online                      46686\n",
       "prediction-offline-sme                        43917\n",
       "prediction-request-reasoning                  41645\n",
       "prediction-request-rag-claude                 25431\n",
       "prediction-offline                             6215\n",
       "prediction-online                              2289\n",
       "prediction-online-sme                          2203\n",
       "prediction-request-rag                         2172\n",
       "prediction-request-reasoning-claude            2025\n",
       "prediction-url-cot-claude                      1992\n",
       "superforcaster                                 1080\n",
       "stabilityai-stable-diffusion-v1-6               119\n",
       "stabilityai-stable-diffusion-xl-1024-v1-0       116\n",
       "Name: count, dtype: int64"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 4,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "tools.tool.value_counts()"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 5,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "tools_superforcaster = tools.loc[tools[\"tool\"]==\"superforcaster\"]"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 6,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "<class 'pandas.core.frame.DataFrame'>\n",
      "Index: 1080 entries, 25 to 285910\n",
      "Data columns (total 23 columns):\n",
      " #   Column                   Non-Null Count  Dtype  \n",
      "---  ------                   --------------  -----  \n",
      " 0   request_id               1080 non-null   object \n",
      " 1   request_block            1080 non-null   object \n",
      " 2   prompt_request           1080 non-null   object \n",
      " 3   tool                     1080 non-null   object \n",
      " 4   nonce                    1080 non-null   object \n",
      " 5   trader_address           1080 non-null   object \n",
      " 6   deliver_block            1080 non-null   object \n",
      " 7   error                    1080 non-null   int64  \n",
      " 8   error_message            0 non-null      object \n",
      " 9   prompt_response          1080 non-null   object \n",
      " 10  mech_address             1080 non-null   object \n",
      " 11  p_yes                    1080 non-null   float64\n",
      " 12  p_no                     1080 non-null   float64\n",
      " 13  confidence               1080 non-null   float64\n",
      " 14  info_utility             1080 non-null   float64\n",
      " 15  vote                     1068 non-null   object \n",
      " 16  win_probability          1080 non-null   float64\n",
      " 17  market_creator           1080 non-null   object \n",
      " 18  title                    1080 non-null   object \n",
      " 19  currentAnswer            763 non-null    object \n",
      " 20  request_time             1080 non-null   object \n",
      " 21  request_month_year       1080 non-null   object \n",
      " 22  request_month_year_week  1080 non-null   object \n",
      "dtypes: float64(5), int64(1), object(17)\n",
      "memory usage: 202.5+ KB\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "tools_superforcaster.info()"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 7,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "219"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 7,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "len(list(tools_superforcaster.trader_address.unique()))"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 9,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/html": [
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       "<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
       "  <thead>\n",
       "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th>request_id</th>\n",
       "      <th>request_block</th>\n",
       "      <th>prompt_request</th>\n",
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       "      <th>info_utility</th>\n",
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       "      <th>win_probability</th>\n",
       "      <th>market_creator</th>\n",
       "      <th>title</th>\n",
       "      <th>currentAnswer</th>\n",
       "      <th>request_time</th>\n",
       "      <th>request_month_year</th>\n",
       "      <th>request_month_year_week</th>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </thead>\n",
       "  <tbody>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>25</th>\n",
       "      <td>7954746357421406217625419969909404056225427053...</td>\n",
       "      <td>36701081</td>\n",
       "      <td>Please take over the role of a Data Scientist ...</td>\n",
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       "      <td>\\nYou are an advanced AI system which has been...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.6</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.4</td>\n",
       "      <td>No</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.70</td>\n",
       "      <td>quickstart</td>\n",
       "      <td>Will any new human rights organizations public...</td>\n",
       "      <td>Yes</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024-10-26 12:40:25</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024-10</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024-10-21/2024-10-27</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>487</th>\n",
       "      <td>3893466766708161182364759698039339419255094338...</td>\n",
       "      <td>36811522</td>\n",
       "      <td>Please take over the role of a Data Scientist ...</td>\n",
       "      <td>superforcaster</td>\n",
       "      <td>80f86c11-29b7-480d-a73d-a1cc2738c911</td>\n",
       "      <td>0x6f2f057275f7072203b70aa4212d7d2448a2b16f</td>\n",
       "      <td>36811532</td>\n",
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       "      <td>...</td>\n",
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       "      <td>0.3</td>\n",
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       "      <td>0.99</td>\n",
       "      <td>quickstart</td>\n",
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       "      <td>2024-11-02 03:18:25</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024-11</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024-10-28/2024-11-03</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
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       "      <td>Please take over the role of a Data Scientist ...</td>\n",
       "      <td>superforcaster</td>\n",
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       "      <td>36702802</td>\n",
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       "      <td>superforcaster</td>\n",
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       "      <td>0xacb24b20805c6e475d2c17edb2a997c1ba47de79</td>\n",
       "      <td>36702815</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>None</td>\n",
       "      <td>\\nYou are an advanced AI system which has been...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.6</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.4</td>\n",
       "      <td>No</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.70</td>\n",
       "      <td>quickstart</td>\n",
       "      <td>Will any of the Caspian Sea countries publicly...</td>\n",
       "      <td>No</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024-10-26 15:09:35</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024-10</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024-10-21/2024-10-27</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>3104</th>\n",
       "      <td>8199746255688176940073355030356696899510084324...</td>\n",
       "      <td>36795210</td>\n",
       "      <td>Please take over the role of a Data Scientist ...</td>\n",
       "      <td>superforcaster</td>\n",
       "      <td>c4163205-eef9-43b5-8e3f-b879f1e69d7b</td>\n",
       "      <td>0xb2912a22ee91272861931b693c434d420610abfe</td>\n",
       "      <td>36795222</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>None</td>\n",
       "      <td>\\nYou are an advanced AI system which has been...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.6</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.4</td>\n",
       "      <td>No</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.70</td>\n",
       "      <td>quickstart</td>\n",
       "      <td>Will the Brazilian government announce a forma...</td>\n",
       "      <td>None</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024-11-01 03:54:10</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024-11</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024-10-28/2024-11-03</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </tbody>\n",
       "</table>\n",
       "<p>5 rows × 23 columns</p>\n",
       "</div>"
      ],
      "text/plain": [
       "                                             request_id request_block  \\\n",
       "25    7954746357421406217625419969909404056225427053...      36701081   \n",
       "487   3893466766708161182364759698039339419255094338...      36811522   \n",
       "1200  7937905446830497137329572363351508546160463954...      36759585   \n",
       "2999  7132897945614190217838117925907875446836020321...      36702802   \n",
       "3104  8199746255688176940073355030356696899510084324...      36795210   \n",
       "\n",
       "                                         prompt_request            tool  \\\n",
       "25    Please take over the role of a Data Scientist ...  superforcaster   \n",
       "487   Please take over the role of a Data Scientist ...  superforcaster   \n",
       "1200  Please take over the role of a Data Scientist ...  superforcaster   \n",
       "2999  Please take over the role of a Data Scientist ...  superforcaster   \n",
       "3104  Please take over the role of a Data Scientist ...  superforcaster   \n",
       "\n",
       "                                     nonce  \\\n",
       "25    1b609b7e-e0d2-4bb8-ad6b-7d0e6e6610b5   \n",
       "487   80f86c11-29b7-480d-a73d-a1cc2738c911   \n",
       "1200  544f9e46-1293-4d61-abcf-15eae6406281   \n",
       "2999  a8e456c8-b87a-41fd-ba17-a69d9b2dc195   \n",
       "3104  c4163205-eef9-43b5-8e3f-b879f1e69d7b   \n",
       "\n",
       "                                  trader_address deliver_block  error  \\\n",
       "25    0x8dd0f0f64e575a356545d9ed096122a1887e64bf      36701099      0   \n",
       "487   0x6f2f057275f7072203b70aa4212d7d2448a2b16f      36811532      0   \n",
       "1200  0xea1f46f9ea5bb3119a94bff2e4b95aaf8a93f594      36759592      0   \n",
       "2999  0xacb24b20805c6e475d2c17edb2a997c1ba47de79      36702815      0   \n",
       "3104  0xb2912a22ee91272861931b693c434d420610abfe      36795222      0   \n",
       "\n",
       "     error_message                                    prompt_response  ...  \\\n",
       "25            None  \\nYou are an advanced AI system which has been...  ...   \n",
       "487           None  \\nYou are an advanced AI system which has been...  ...   \n",
       "1200          None  \\nYou are an advanced AI system which has been...  ...   \n",
       "2999          None  \\nYou are an advanced AI system which has been...  ...   \n",
       "3104          None  \\nYou are an advanced AI system which has been...  ...   \n",
       "\n",
       "     confidence  info_utility  vote  win_probability  market_creator  \\\n",
       "25          0.6           0.4    No             0.70      quickstart   \n",
       "487         0.8           0.3    No             0.99      quickstart   \n",
       "1200        0.6           0.4    No             0.70      quickstart   \n",
       "2999        0.6           0.4    No             0.70      quickstart   \n",
       "3104        0.6           0.4    No             0.70      quickstart   \n",
       "\n",
       "                                                  title  currentAnswer  \\\n",
       "25    Will any new human rights organizations public...            Yes   \n",
       "487   Will any official statement from Russia confir...            Yes   \n",
       "1200  Will the COP29 summit in Baku result in any ne...            Yes   \n",
       "2999  Will any of the Caspian Sea countries publicly...             No   \n",
       "3104  Will the Brazilian government announce a forma...           None   \n",
       "\n",
       "             request_time request_month_year request_month_year_week  \n",
       "25    2024-10-26 12:40:25            2024-10   2024-10-21/2024-10-27  \n",
       "487   2024-11-02 03:18:25            2024-11   2024-10-28/2024-11-03  \n",
       "1200  2024-10-30 00:44:50            2024-10   2024-10-28/2024-11-03  \n",
       "2999  2024-10-26 15:09:35            2024-10   2024-10-21/2024-10-27  \n",
       "3104  2024-11-01 03:54:10            2024-11   2024-10-28/2024-11-03  \n",
       "\n",
       "[5 rows x 23 columns]"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 9,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "tools_superforcaster.head()"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 10,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "market_creator\n",
       "quickstart    944\n",
       "pearl         136\n",
       "Name: count, dtype: int64"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 10,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "tools_superforcaster.market_creator.value_counts()"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 13,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "<Axes: xlabel='vote', ylabel='currentAnswer'>"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 13,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    },
    {
     "data": {
      "image/png": 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33FPN2QAA2qyiuPnJT36SadOmZdSoUdtu4nfIIYdk9uzZufvuu6s6IABAW1QUNw888ECmTJmS8847L506/W4TX/nKVzJt2rQ8+uijVR0QAKAtKoqbNWvW5KCDDtpheZ8+fbJ+/fr2zgQAULGK4uawww7LvHnztlvW2tqae++9N4ceemg15gIAqEhFn5a67rrrcvHFF2fJkiVpaWnJP/zDP2TFihXZtGlT/vmf/7naMwIA7LSK4ubggw/O008/nfnz52f58uXZunVrTjzxxJx22mk7fJEmAMCnqaK4GTVqVG6++eaceeaZ1Z4HAKBdKrrm5t133019fX21ZwEAaLeKjtycfvrp+da3vpXTTjstvXv3TkNDww7rAQBqoaK4WbhwYTp16pQFCxbssK6urk7cAAA1U1Hc3HrrrTn00EN3OGIDAFBrFV1zc+mll+att96q9iwAAO1WUdz8xV/8RX71q19VexYAgHar6LRUjx49csMNN+TOO+/MAQcckD333HO79ffff39VhgMAaKuK4mbQoEEZNGhQtWcBAGi3iuLm0ksvrfYcAABVUVHcXHPNNf/f9TfffHNFwwAAtFdFFxT/b1u2bMlbb72VhQsXplevXtXYJABARSo6cvOHjszMmjUrv/71r9s1EABAe1TlyM0nTj755DzzzDPV3CQAQJtULW4++uijPPzww+nZs2e1NgkA0GYVnZb6/Oc/n7q6uh2Wd+nSJZMnT273UAAAlaoobu6///589NFH6dSpU7p06ZIkmTlzZs4777wMGzasqgMCALRFRaelli1blrFjx+a9995LY2NjGhsbM3DgwIwbNy6PPPJItWcEANhpFcXNfffdl+9///v56le/um3ZhAkTctttt+Wee+6p2nAAAG1VUdy8//776du37w7LBwwYkHXr1rV7KACASlUUN0cccUTuuuuuNDc3b1v229/+NjNnzszhhx9eteEAANqqoguKJ06cmL//+7/P0KFD079//yTJypUrs++++2b69OnVnA8AoE0qipu+fftm4cKFeeGFF7JixYp07tw5/fv3z9ChQ1NfX1/tGQEAdlpFcZMke+65Z0488cRqzgIA0G5V/foFAIBaEzcAQFHEDQBQFHEDABRF3AAARRE3AEBRxA0AUBRxAwAURdwAAEURNwBAUcQNAFAUcQMAFEXcAABFETcAQFHEDQBQFHEDABRF3AAARRE3AEBRxA0AUBRxAwAURdwAAEURNwBAUcQNAFAUcQMAFEXcAABFETcAQFHEDQBQFHEDABRF3AAARRE3AEBRxA0AUJQOFTcDBw7MVVddtcPyOXPmZNiwYTWYCAD4rOlQcZMkCxYsyIsvvljrMQCAz6gOFze9e/fOpEmT0tLSUutRAIDPoA4XN1deeWWampoye/bsP/iYtWvX5oorrkhjY2OGDBmSKVOmiCEAIEkHjJv99tsvl19+eWbOnJlVq1btsL6lpSUXXnhhmpub88ADD+SOO+7IkiVLMm3atDb/rbq66v8AwO5uV7y/tuV9tvOu3b3KnH/++ZkzZ06mTp2amTNnbrfuhRdeSFNTUx555JH06NEjSTJx4sRccskl+e53v5tu3brt9N/ZZ5/uVZ0bAEj23be2768dMm7q6+tz44035pxzzsnixYu3W7d8+fL0799/W9gkyeDBg7Nly5asXLkygwYN2um/8957G9LaWrWxAYAk69Zt2CXbravbuQMTHe601CcGDx6cM844I1OnTk1zc/O25Q0NDTs8duvWrdv93lmtrdX/AYDd3a54f23L+2yHjZskGTduXD766KPtLi4eMGBAVqxYkfXr129b9tprr6Vz587p27dvDaYEADqSDh03PXv2zLhx4/L2229vW3bsscemT58+ufrqq7Ns2bK89NJLmTx5ck499dTsvffeNZwWAOgIOnTcJMmZZ56Zww8/fNt/19fXZ/r06UmSs846K2PHjs2JJ56YSZMm1WpEAKAD6VAXFC9btmyHZXV1dfmXf/mX7Zb16dMn99xzz6c1FgDwGdLhj9wAALSFuAEAiiJuAICiiBsAoCjiBgAoirgBAIoibgCAoogbAKAo4gYAKIq4AQCKIm4AgKKIGwCgKOIGACiKuAEAiiJuAICiiBsAoCjiBgAoirgBAIoibgCAoogbAKAo4gYAKIq4AQCKIm4AgKKIGwCgKOIGACiKuAEAiiJuAICiiBsAoCjiBgAoirgBAIoibgCAoogbAKAo4gYAKIq4AQCKIm4AgKKIGwCgKOIGACiKuAEAiiJuAICiiBsAoCjiBgAoirgBAIoibgCAoogbAKAo4gYAKIq4AQCKIm4AgKKIGwCgKOIGACiKuAEAiiJuAICiiBsAoCjiBgAoirgBAIoibgCAoogbAKAo4gYAKIq4AQCKIm4AgKKIGwCgKOIGACiKuAEAiiJuAICiiBsAoCjiBgAoirgBAIoibgCAoogbAKAo4gYAKIq4AQCKIm4AgKKIGwCgKOIGACiKuAEAiiJuAICiiBsAoCjiBgAoSl1ra2trrYeolXXrNmT33Xt+n7q6ZN99u3tuQA15HfKHfPLc+GMcuQEAiiJuAICiiBsAoCjiBgAoirgBAIoibgCAoogbAKAo4gYAKIq4AQCKIm4AgKKIGwCgKOIGACiKuAEAiiJuAICiiBsAoCidaz1ALdXV1XoCOppPnhOeG1A7Xof8ITv7nKhrbW1t3bWjAAB8epyWAgCKIm4AgKKIGwCgKOIGACiKuAEAiiJuAICiiBsAoCjiBgAoirgBAIoibtjtDBw4MFddddUOy+fMmZNhw4bVYCIo39ixY3P88cenubl5h3UXXXRRvv71r8cN86kWccNuacGCBXnxxRdrPQbsNiZMmJANGzZk5syZ2y1ftGhRli5dmkmTJqXOl0lRJeKG3VLv3r0zadKktLS01HoU2C3st99+ueyyy3Lfffdl1apVSZJNmzbllltuyUUXXZSDDz64xhNSEnHDbunKK69MU1NTZs+e/Qcfs3bt2lxxxRVpbGzMkCFDMmXKFDEE7XD++eenX79+ue2225Iks2bNSqdOnTJmzJi88847GT16dA477LAMGzYsd999d7Zu3Zok2bx5c6677roMGTIkhx9+eEaPHp2mpqZa7godnLhht7Tffvvl8ssvz8yZM7f9K/J/amlpyYUXXpjm5uY88MADueOOO7JkyZJMmzatBtNCGTp37pyJEydm0aJFWbx4cWbPnp0bbrghDQ0NufTSS7PPPvtk7ty5ufnmmzN//vxtp7AefPDBLF26NPfee28ee+yxbNy4MTfddFON94aOTNyw2/rkX5FTp07dYd0LL7yQpqam3HbbbRk4cGCOPvroTJw4MQ899FA2btxYg2mhDEcddVRGjhyZK664IieccEKOO+64vPTSS1mzZk0mT56cAw88MEOGDMmECRNy//33J0lWr16dhoaG9O7dOwcddFBuueWWXHzxxTXeEzqyzrUeAGqlvr4+N954Y84555wsXrx4u3XLly9P//7906NHj23LBg8enC1btmTlypUZNGjQpz0uFGP06NF54oknMmbMmCS/e72tX78+RxxxxLbHfPzxx9m0aVPef//9nH322XnyySczdOjQNDY2Zvjw4Rk1alStxuczQNywWxs8eHDOOOOMTJ06Nd/61re2LW9oaNjhsZ+c///kN1CZT15fn/zesmVLDjzwwEyfPn2Hx3bv3j09e/bMs88+myVLlmTJkiX5wQ9+kAULFuTBBx/0CSt+L6el2O2NGzcuH3300XYXFw8YMCArVqzI+vXrty177bXX0rlz5/Tt27cGU0K5BgwYkDVr1qRXr17p169f+vXrl9WrV+fOO+9MXV1d5s2bl+eeey6nnHJKbr311syaNSu/+MUv8t5779V6dDooccNur2fPnhk3blzefvvtbcuOPfbY9OnTJ1dffXWWLVuWl156KZMnT86pp56avffeu4bTQnmGDh2a3r17Z/z48Vm2bFleffXVXH/99dlrr71SX1+fDRs2ZOrUqXnxxRezatWqzJ8/P/vvv3969uxZ69HpoJyWgiRnnnlmfvrTn+bdd99N8rvrcaZPn57JkyfnrLPOSrdu3TJy5MiMHTu2xpNCeerr6zNjxoxtr7euXbvm5JNPzoQJE5Ik5557btauXZvx48fngw8+yCGHHJIZM2akvr6+xpPTUdW1ut81AFAQp6UAgKKIGwCgKOIGACiKuAEAiiJuAICiiBsAoCjiBgAoirgBAIoiboBiPfXUU75/CHZD4gYo0ttvv50rr7wyzc3NtR4F+JSJG6BIvlkGdl/iBujQvvvd7277AsVPXHXVVbn22muzdu3aXHHFFWlsbMyQIUMyZcqUtLS0JElOPPHEbb/nzJmTJHnmmWcyYsSIHHbYYTnzzDPzyiuvfLo7A3wqxA3Qof3t3/5tnnvuuWzevDlJ0tLSkueeey6nnHJKLrzwwjQ3N+eBBx7IHXfckSVLlmTatGlJkkcffXTb7xEjRuTNN9/MhAkTcskll+SJJ57Iaaedlm9/+9v5zW9+U7N9A3YNcQN0aF/84hfz8ccf5+WXX06S/PznP0+XLl2yadOmNDU15bbbbsvAgQNz9NFHZ+LEiXnooYeycePG9OrVK0nSq1evdOnSJbNnz85ZZ52VkSNHpl+/frngggvyxS9+MQ899FAtdw/YBTrXegCA/58999wzw4cPz6JFizJ06NAsWrQoX/7yl/Nf//Vf6d+/f3r06LHtsYMHD86WLVuycuXKdO/efbvtLF++PE899VQefvjhbcs2b96coUOHfmr7Anw6xA3Q4Y0YMSLXXHNNrrvuujz77LP5p3/6p7z++us7PG7r1q3b/f7f67797W/n9NNP3255ly5ddsnMQO04LQV0eMccc0y2bt2a++67L126dMmRRx6ZAQMGZMWKFVm/fv22x7322mvp3Llz+vbtm7q6uu22MWDAgKxevTr9+vXb9vPwww/n+eef/5T3BtjVxA3Q4XXu3DknnXRSZs6cmZNPPjl1dXU59thj06dPn1x99dVZtmxZXnrppUyePDmnnnpq9t577+y1115JkjfffDMbN27MN77xjSxcuDD3339/Vq5cmR/96Ef50Y9+lP79+9d254Cqq2t1MwjgM+Dll1/OBRdckEceeSSHHXZYkmTVqlWZPHlyXn755XTr1i0jR47M2LFj09DQkCQZP358nnrqqYwbNy7f+MY38uSTT+auu+7K6tWr07dv31x22WU55ZRTarlbwC4gbgCAojgtBQAURdwAAEURNwBAUcQNAFAUcQMAFEXcAABFETcAQFHEDQBQFHEDABRF3AAARRE3AEBR/i/Ds1MQuD2GkAAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==",
      "text/plain": [
       "<Figure size 640x480 with 1 Axes>"
      ]
     },
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "display_data"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "sns.histplot(tools_superforcaster, x=\"vote\", y=\"currentAnswer\")"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": []
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 14,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "<Axes: xlabel='currentAnswer', ylabel='vote'>"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 14,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    },
    {
     "data": {
      "image/png": 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",
      "text/plain": [
       "<Figure size 640x480 with 2 Axes>"
      ]
     },
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "display_data"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "sns.heatmap(pd.crosstab(tools_superforcaster['vote'], tools_superforcaster['currentAnswer']), \n",
    "            annot=True, \n",
    "            fmt='d', \n",
    "            cmap='YlOrRd')"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": []
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 8,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "error\n",
       "0    1080\n",
       "Name: count, dtype: int64"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 8,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "tools_superforcaster.error.value_counts()"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 6,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "tools_errors = tools.loc[tools[\"error\"]==1]"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 7,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/html": [
       "<div>\n",
       "<style scoped>\n",
       "    .dataframe tbody tr th:only-of-type {\n",
       "        vertical-align: middle;\n",
       "    }\n",
       "\n",
       "    .dataframe tbody tr th {\n",
       "        vertical-align: top;\n",
       "    }\n",
       "\n",
       "    .dataframe thead th {\n",
       "        text-align: right;\n",
       "    }\n",
       "</style>\n",
       "<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
       "  <thead>\n",
       "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th>request_id</th>\n",
       "      <th>request_block</th>\n",
       "      <th>prompt_request</th>\n",
       "      <th>tool</th>\n",
       "      <th>nonce</th>\n",
       "      <th>trader_address</th>\n",
       "      <th>deliver_block</th>\n",
       "      <th>error</th>\n",
       "      <th>error_message</th>\n",
       "      <th>prompt_response</th>\n",
       "      <th>...</th>\n",
       "      <th>confidence</th>\n",
       "      <th>info_utility</th>\n",
       "      <th>vote</th>\n",
       "      <th>win_probability</th>\n",
       "      <th>market_creator</th>\n",
       "      <th>title</th>\n",
       "      <th>currentAnswer</th>\n",
       "      <th>request_time</th>\n",
       "      <th>request_month_year</th>\n",
       "      <th>request_month_year_week</th>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </thead>\n",
       "  <tbody>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>86</th>\n",
       "      <td>4881674922867639641311571037228957716478871650...</td>\n",
       "      <td>35999601</td>\n",
       "      <td>Please take over the role of a Data Scientist ...</td>\n",
       "      <td>prediction-request-reasoning</td>\n",
       "      <td>717e6b3a-fb8e-46b8-b08f-09b7688bd3f5</td>\n",
       "      <td>0x75c0366bd0cbc3db434fd117267e32f26c5ed857</td>\n",
       "      <td>35999619</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>Response parsing error</td>\n",
       "      <td></td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>None</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>quickstart</td>\n",
       "      <td>Will Jalen Ramsey remain the highest-paid corn...</td>\n",
       "      <td>Yes</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024-09-14 16:36:10</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024-09</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024-09-09/2024-09-15</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>150</th>\n",
       "      <td>1635603471143500367687547686004256739020540606...</td>\n",
       "      <td>36085486</td>\n",
       "      <td>Please take over the role of a Data Scientist ...</td>\n",
       "      <td>prediction-request-reasoning</td>\n",
       "      <td>906015ba-4b44-4f16-865b-a78ec20fbd43</td>\n",
       "      <td>0x9373cb196a3542afa583a91db604aee92068552a</td>\n",
       "      <td>36085552</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>Response parsing error</td>\n",
       "      <td>None</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>None</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>quickstart</td>\n",
       "      <td>Will the DNA-based storage technology develope...</td>\n",
       "      <td>No</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024-09-19 19:04:55</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024-09</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024-09-16/2024-09-22</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>171</th>\n",
       "      <td>9605346928838243745282196096485039029835957400...</td>\n",
       "      <td>36153230</td>\n",
       "      <td>Please take over the role of a Data Scientist ...</td>\n",
       "      <td>prediction-request-reasoning</td>\n",
       "      <td>03dea35f-4e35-4d2d-9a6c-8f47e22fbeac</td>\n",
       "      <td>0x61766a46659b67bbda5484bba45e524ccc652ee4</td>\n",
       "      <td>36153243</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>Response parsing error</td>\n",
       "      <td></td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>None</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>quickstart</td>\n",
       "      <td>Will the DJI Air 3S drone be launched on or by...</td>\n",
       "      <td>No</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024-09-23 19:36:20</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024-09</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024-09-23/2024-09-29</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>302</th>\n",
       "      <td>8665095948962365369308240696967816065773728349...</td>\n",
       "      <td>36242586</td>\n",
       "      <td>Please take over the role of a Data Scientist ...</td>\n",
       "      <td>prediction-request-reasoning</td>\n",
       "      <td>f359963a-595c-44e0-bd26-0e9d7fd7eb55</td>\n",
       "      <td>0x839eaee319420e6dc83383bbb41fce4f8b0bb9aa</td>\n",
       "      <td>36242602</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>Response parsing error</td>\n",
       "      <td></td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>None</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>quickstart</td>\n",
       "      <td>Will New York Mayor Eric Adams resign due to t...</td>\n",
       "      <td>No</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024-09-29 03:27:40</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024-09</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024-09-23/2024-09-29</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>320</th>\n",
       "      <td>8760585200747573871316640694310284358194695510...</td>\n",
       "      <td>36031841</td>\n",
       "      <td>Please take over the role of a Data Scientist ...</td>\n",
       "      <td>prediction-request-reasoning</td>\n",
       "      <td>12bd33ad-88f6-4792-833b-b9bd22d8fe60</td>\n",
       "      <td>0x1d942103400c1f1657dcbffd5e08904787ea936b</td>\n",
       "      <td>36031861</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>Response parsing error</td>\n",
       "      <td></td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>None</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>quickstart</td>\n",
       "      <td>Will the Miami Dolphins win their game on 18 S...</td>\n",
       "      <td>No</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024-09-16 14:30:55</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024-09</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024-09-16/2024-09-22</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </tbody>\n",
       "</table>\n",
       "<p>5 rows × 23 columns</p>\n",
       "</div>"
      ],
      "text/plain": [
       "                                            request_id request_block  \\\n",
       "86   4881674922867639641311571037228957716478871650...      35999601   \n",
       "150  1635603471143500367687547686004256739020540606...      36085486   \n",
       "171  9605346928838243745282196096485039029835957400...      36153230   \n",
       "302  8665095948962365369308240696967816065773728349...      36242586   \n",
       "320  8760585200747573871316640694310284358194695510...      36031841   \n",
       "\n",
       "                                        prompt_request  \\\n",
       "86   Please take over the role of a Data Scientist ...   \n",
       "150  Please take over the role of a Data Scientist ...   \n",
       "171  Please take over the role of a Data Scientist ...   \n",
       "302  Please take over the role of a Data Scientist ...   \n",
       "320  Please take over the role of a Data Scientist ...   \n",
       "\n",
       "                             tool                                 nonce  \\\n",
       "86   prediction-request-reasoning  717e6b3a-fb8e-46b8-b08f-09b7688bd3f5   \n",
       "150  prediction-request-reasoning  906015ba-4b44-4f16-865b-a78ec20fbd43   \n",
       "171  prediction-request-reasoning  03dea35f-4e35-4d2d-9a6c-8f47e22fbeac   \n",
       "302  prediction-request-reasoning  f359963a-595c-44e0-bd26-0e9d7fd7eb55   \n",
       "320  prediction-request-reasoning  12bd33ad-88f6-4792-833b-b9bd22d8fe60   \n",
       "\n",
       "                                 trader_address deliver_block  error  \\\n",
       "86   0x75c0366bd0cbc3db434fd117267e32f26c5ed857      35999619      1   \n",
       "150  0x9373cb196a3542afa583a91db604aee92068552a      36085552      1   \n",
       "171  0x61766a46659b67bbda5484bba45e524ccc652ee4      36153243      1   \n",
       "302  0x839eaee319420e6dc83383bbb41fce4f8b0bb9aa      36242602      1   \n",
       "320  0x1d942103400c1f1657dcbffd5e08904787ea936b      36031861      1   \n",
       "\n",
       "              error_message prompt_response  ... confidence  info_utility  \\\n",
       "86   Response parsing error                  ...        NaN           NaN   \n",
       "150  Response parsing error            None  ...        NaN           NaN   \n",
       "171  Response parsing error                  ...        NaN           NaN   \n",
       "302  Response parsing error                  ...        NaN           NaN   \n",
       "320  Response parsing error                  ...        NaN           NaN   \n",
       "\n",
       "     vote  win_probability  market_creator  \\\n",
       "86   None              NaN      quickstart   \n",
       "150  None              NaN      quickstart   \n",
       "171  None              NaN      quickstart   \n",
       "302  None              NaN      quickstart   \n",
       "320  None              NaN      quickstart   \n",
       "\n",
       "                                                 title  currentAnswer  \\\n",
       "86   Will Jalen Ramsey remain the highest-paid corn...            Yes   \n",
       "150  Will the DNA-based storage technology develope...             No   \n",
       "171  Will the DJI Air 3S drone be launched on or by...             No   \n",
       "302  Will New York Mayor Eric Adams resign due to t...             No   \n",
       "320  Will the Miami Dolphins win their game on 18 S...             No   \n",
       "\n",
       "            request_time request_month_year request_month_year_week  \n",
       "86   2024-09-14 16:36:10            2024-09   2024-09-09/2024-09-15  \n",
       "150  2024-09-19 19:04:55            2024-09   2024-09-16/2024-09-22  \n",
       "171  2024-09-23 19:36:20            2024-09   2024-09-23/2024-09-29  \n",
       "302  2024-09-29 03:27:40            2024-09   2024-09-23/2024-09-29  \n",
       "320  2024-09-16 14:30:55            2024-09   2024-09-16/2024-09-22  \n",
       "\n",
       "[5 rows x 23 columns]"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 7,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "tools_errors.head()"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 8,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "market_creator\n",
       "quickstart    2581\n",
       "pearl          291\n",
       "Name: count, dtype: int64"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 8,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "tools_errors.market_creator.value_counts()"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 9,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "tools_errors_pearl = tools_errors.loc[tools_errors[\"market_creator\"]==\"pearl\"]"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 10,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "tool\n",
       "prediction-request-reasoning           173\n",
       "prediction-offline-sme                  83\n",
       "prediction-request-reasoning-claude     20\n",
       "prediction-request-rag                   7\n",
       "prediction-request-rag-claude            5\n",
       "prediction-online-sme                    2\n",
       "claude-prediction-offline                1\n",
       "Name: count, dtype: int64"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 10,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "tools_errors_pearl.tool.value_counts()"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 11,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "tools_errors_pearl_reasoning = tools_errors_pearl.loc[tools_errors_pearl[\"tool\"]==\"prediction-request-reasoning\"]"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 12,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "error_message\n",
       "Response parsing error    173\n",
       "Name: count, dtype: int64"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 12,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "tools_errors_pearl_reasoning.error_message.value_counts()"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 13,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "request_month_year_week\n",
       "2024-08-19/2024-08-25    54\n",
       "2024-10-07/2024-10-13    53\n",
       "2024-09-02/2024-09-08    33\n",
       "2024-09-23/2024-09-29    12\n",
       "2024-09-09/2024-09-15    12\n",
       "2024-08-26/2024-09-01     5\n",
       "2024-09-30/2024-10-06     4\n",
       "Name: count, dtype: int64"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 13,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "tools_errors_pearl_reasoning.request_month_year_week.value_counts()"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 14,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "tools_errors_pearl_reasoning_oct = tools_errors_pearl_reasoning.loc[tools_errors_pearl_reasoning[\"request_month_year_week\"]==\"2024-10-07/2024-10-13\"]"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 15,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/html": [
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       "</style>\n",
       "<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
       "  <thead>\n",
       "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th>request_id</th>\n",
       "      <th>request_block</th>\n",
       "      <th>prompt_request</th>\n",
       "      <th>tool</th>\n",
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       "      <th>trader_address</th>\n",
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       "      <th>prompt_response</th>\n",
       "      <th>...</th>\n",
       "      <th>confidence</th>\n",
       "      <th>info_utility</th>\n",
       "      <th>vote</th>\n",
       "      <th>win_probability</th>\n",
       "      <th>market_creator</th>\n",
       "      <th>title</th>\n",
       "      <th>currentAnswer</th>\n",
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       "      <th>request_month_year</th>\n",
       "      <th>request_month_year_week</th>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </thead>\n",
       "  <tbody>\n",
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       "      <td>Please take over the role of a Data Scientist ...</td>\n",
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       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>None</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>pearl</td>\n",
       "      <td>Will Rivian produce more electric vehicles in ...</td>\n",
       "      <td>No</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024-10-09 07:16:50</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024-10</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024-10-07/2024-10-13</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>4446</th>\n",
       "      <td>5354600326067223816020518930816563773467758113...</td>\n",
       "      <td>36403643</td>\n",
       "      <td>Please take over the role of a Data Scientist ...</td>\n",
       "      <td>prediction-request-reasoning</td>\n",
       "      <td>c74f8eb6-5570-4258-b86b-6e92eca1a09b</td>\n",
       "      <td>0x04430ebfb7d088960233b7353cb4cefb528dc31e</td>\n",
       "      <td>36403657</td>\n",
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       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>None</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>pearl</td>\n",
       "      <td>Will the Dyson WashG1 wet floor cleaner reach ...</td>\n",
       "      <td>No</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024-10-08 17:32:55</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024-10</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024-10-07/2024-10-13</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>4482</th>\n",
       "      <td>6150779611250311931991788339674513841446857824...</td>\n",
       "      <td>36490063</td>\n",
       "      <td>Please take over the role of a Data Scientist ...</td>\n",
       "      <td>prediction-request-reasoning</td>\n",
       "      <td>3bb89890-6b83-4788-94f8-e7eacf6ea121</td>\n",
       "      <td>0x8069ea45a18910fa493a6a736438971b0e59ec9b</td>\n",
       "      <td>36490078</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>Response parsing error</td>\n",
       "      <td></td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>None</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>pearl</td>\n",
       "      <td>Will Biden speak to Netanyahu about Iran retal...</td>\n",
       "      <td>Yes</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024-10-13 20:56:30</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024-10</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024-10-07/2024-10-13</td>\n",
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       "      <td>2629357539419898379977886858224971150345341996...</td>\n",
       "      <td>36396729</td>\n",
       "      <td>Please take over the role of a Data Scientist ...</td>\n",
       "      <td>prediction-request-reasoning</td>\n",
       "      <td>858c4497-836e-43e8-b234-868d3d542f0d</td>\n",
       "      <td>0x04430ebfb7d088960233b7353cb4cefb528dc31e</td>\n",
       "      <td>36396742</td>\n",
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       "      <td>...</td>\n",
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       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>None</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>pearl</td>\n",
       "      <td>Will the Dyson WashG1 wet floor cleaner reach ...</td>\n",
       "      <td>No</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024-10-08 07:38:25</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024-10</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024-10-07/2024-10-13</td>\n",
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       "      <td>0x04430ebfb7d088960233b7353cb4cefb528dc31e</td>\n",
       "      <td>36405513</td>\n",
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       "      <td>Response parsing error</td>\n",
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       "      <td>...</td>\n",
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       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>None</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>pearl</td>\n",
       "      <td>Will Rivian produce more electric vehicles in ...</td>\n",
       "      <td>No</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024-10-08 20:10:45</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024-10</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024-10-07/2024-10-13</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </tbody>\n",
       "</table>\n",
       "<p>5 rows × 23 columns</p>\n",
       "</div>"
      ],
      "text/plain": [
       "                                             request_id request_block  \\\n",
       "1301  6096315197620058968806130972169678143719505006...      36413260   \n",
       "4446  5354600326067223816020518930816563773467758113...      36403643   \n",
       "4482  6150779611250311931991788339674513841446857824...      36490063   \n",
       "5281  2629357539419898379977886858224971150345341996...      36396729   \n",
       "5978  6657538643069097666675831403759282242594505545...      36405500   \n",
       "\n",
       "                                         prompt_request  \\\n",
       "1301  Please take over the role of a Data Scientist ...   \n",
       "4446  Please take over the role of a Data Scientist ...   \n",
       "4482  Please take over the role of a Data Scientist ...   \n",
       "5281  Please take over the role of a Data Scientist ...   \n",
       "5978  Please take over the role of a Data Scientist ...   \n",
       "\n",
       "                              tool                                 nonce  \\\n",
       "1301  prediction-request-reasoning  f2016229-4284-4178-ba31-6d3d79c08db2   \n",
       "4446  prediction-request-reasoning  c74f8eb6-5570-4258-b86b-6e92eca1a09b   \n",
       "4482  prediction-request-reasoning  3bb89890-6b83-4788-94f8-e7eacf6ea121   \n",
       "5281  prediction-request-reasoning  858c4497-836e-43e8-b234-868d3d542f0d   \n",
       "5978  prediction-request-reasoning  cb9b0663-3eea-43ec-b791-43f3d5946f91   \n",
       "\n",
       "                                  trader_address deliver_block  error  \\\n",
       "1301  0x04430ebfb7d088960233b7353cb4cefb528dc31e      36413276      1   \n",
       "4446  0x04430ebfb7d088960233b7353cb4cefb528dc31e      36403657      1   \n",
       "4482  0x8069ea45a18910fa493a6a736438971b0e59ec9b      36490078      1   \n",
       "5281  0x04430ebfb7d088960233b7353cb4cefb528dc31e      36396742      1   \n",
       "5978  0x04430ebfb7d088960233b7353cb4cefb528dc31e      36405513      1   \n",
       "\n",
       "               error_message prompt_response  ... confidence  info_utility  \\\n",
       "1301  Response parsing error                  ...        NaN           NaN   \n",
       "4446  Response parsing error                  ...        NaN           NaN   \n",
       "4482  Response parsing error                  ...        NaN           NaN   \n",
       "5281  Response parsing error                  ...        NaN           NaN   \n",
       "5978  Response parsing error                  ...        NaN           NaN   \n",
       "\n",
       "      vote  win_probability  market_creator  \\\n",
       "1301  None              NaN           pearl   \n",
       "4446  None              NaN           pearl   \n",
       "4482  None              NaN           pearl   \n",
       "5281  None              NaN           pearl   \n",
       "5978  None              NaN           pearl   \n",
       "\n",
       "                                                  title  currentAnswer  \\\n",
       "1301  Will Rivian produce more electric vehicles in ...             No   \n",
       "4446  Will the Dyson WashG1 wet floor cleaner reach ...             No   \n",
       "4482  Will Biden speak to Netanyahu about Iran retal...            Yes   \n",
       "5281  Will the Dyson WashG1 wet floor cleaner reach ...             No   \n",
       "5978  Will Rivian produce more electric vehicles in ...             No   \n",
       "\n",
       "             request_time request_month_year request_month_year_week  \n",
       "1301  2024-10-09 07:16:50            2024-10   2024-10-07/2024-10-13  \n",
       "4446  2024-10-08 17:32:55            2024-10   2024-10-07/2024-10-13  \n",
       "4482  2024-10-13 20:56:30            2024-10   2024-10-07/2024-10-13  \n",
       "5281  2024-10-08 07:38:25            2024-10   2024-10-07/2024-10-13  \n",
       "5978  2024-10-08 20:10:45            2024-10   2024-10-07/2024-10-13  \n",
       "\n",
       "[5 rows x 23 columns]"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 15,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "tools_errors_pearl_reasoning_oct.head()"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 16,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "title\n",
       "Will Rivian produce more electric vehicles in 2024 than it did in 2023 by 11 October 2024?                     27\n",
       "Will the Dyson WashG1 wet floor cleaner reach a sales target of 500,000 units in the US by 10 October 2024?    25\n",
       "Will Biden speak to Netanyahu about Iran retaliation on 16 October 2024?                                        1\n",
       "Name: count, dtype: int64"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 16,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "tools_errors_pearl_reasoning_oct.title.value_counts()"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 17,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "title                                                                                                        trader_address                            \n",
       "Will Biden speak to Netanyahu about Iran retaliation on 16 October 2024?                                     0x8069ea45a18910fa493a6a736438971b0e59ec9b     1\n",
       "Will Rivian produce more electric vehicles in 2024 than it did in 2023 by 11 October 2024?                   0x032533005f65026fa7f360ff9a211bc94315325d     5\n",
       "                                                                                                             0x04430ebfb7d088960233b7353cb4cefb528dc31e    18\n",
       "                                                                                                             0x4b9e1890640e5f56f7fdc580347c938aaab56c25     1\n",
       "                                                                                                             0x75c10935141d740b71e1763aa6a3139643754655     1\n",
       "                                                                                                             0x9db7e7a0c82a229a7f3bb15046ff0c3a778b7291     1\n",
       "                                                                                                             0xcbb7f0dc4daac0654d6f18638b4416666a01dff2     1\n",
       "Will the Dyson WashG1 wet floor cleaner reach a sales target of 500,000 units in the US by 10 October 2024?  0x032533005f65026fa7f360ff9a211bc94315325d     4\n",
       "                                                                                                             0x04430ebfb7d088960233b7353cb4cefb528dc31e    21\n",
       "Name: request_id, dtype: int64"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 17,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "tools_errors_pearl_reasoning_oct.groupby([\"title\",\"trader_address\"])[\"request_id\"].count()"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 18,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
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       "  <thead>\n",
       "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th>request_id</th>\n",
       "      <th>request_block</th>\n",
       "      <th>prompt_request</th>\n",
       "      <th>tool</th>\n",
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       "      <th>trader_address</th>\n",
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       "      <th>error_message</th>\n",
       "      <th>prompt_response</th>\n",
       "      <th>...</th>\n",
       "      <th>confidence</th>\n",
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       "      <th>request_month_year_week</th>\n",
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       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>None</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>pearl</td>\n",
       "      <td>Will Rivian produce more electric vehicles in ...</td>\n",
       "      <td>No</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024-10-09 07:16:50</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024-10</td>\n",
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       "      <td>pearl</td>\n",
       "      <td>Will the Dyson WashG1 wet floor cleaner reach ...</td>\n",
       "      <td>No</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024-10-08 17:32:55</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024-10</td>\n",
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       "      <td>858c4497-836e-43e8-b234-868d3d542f0d</td>\n",
       "      <td>0x04430ebfb7d088960233b7353cb4cefb528dc31e</td>\n",
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       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
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       "      <td>Will the Dyson WashG1 wet floor cleaner reach ...</td>\n",
       "      <td>No</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024-10-08 07:38:25</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024-10</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024-10-07/2024-10-13</td>\n",
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       "      <td>Please take over the role of a Data Scientist ...</td>\n",
       "      <td>prediction-request-reasoning</td>\n",
       "      <td>cb9b0663-3eea-43ec-b791-43f3d5946f91</td>\n",
       "      <td>0x04430ebfb7d088960233b7353cb4cefb528dc31e</td>\n",
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       "      <td></td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>None</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>pearl</td>\n",
       "      <td>Will Rivian produce more electric vehicles in ...</td>\n",
       "      <td>No</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024-10-08 20:10:45</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024-10</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024-10-07/2024-10-13</td>\n",
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       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>13521</th>\n",
       "      <td>5425044058976052235962273954205049658875702880...</td>\n",
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       "      <td>Will Rivian produce more electric vehicles in ...</td>\n",
       "      <td>No</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024-10-08 12:25:15</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024-10</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024-10-07/2024-10-13</td>\n",
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       "<p>5 rows × 23 columns</p>\n",
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       "                                              request_id request_block  \\\n",
       "1301   6096315197620058968806130972169678143719505006...      36413260   \n",
       "4446   5354600326067223816020518930816563773467758113...      36403643   \n",
       "5281   2629357539419898379977886858224971150345341996...      36396729   \n",
       "5978   6657538643069097666675831403759282242594505545...      36405500   \n",
       "13521  5425044058976052235962273954205049658875702880...      36400070   \n",
       "\n",
       "                                          prompt_request  \\\n",
       "1301   Please take over the role of a Data Scientist ...   \n",
       "4446   Please take over the role of a Data Scientist ...   \n",
       "5281   Please take over the role of a Data Scientist ...   \n",
       "5978   Please take over the role of a Data Scientist ...   \n",
       "13521  Please take over the role of a Data Scientist ...   \n",
       "\n",
       "                               tool                                 nonce  \\\n",
       "1301   prediction-request-reasoning  f2016229-4284-4178-ba31-6d3d79c08db2   \n",
       "4446   prediction-request-reasoning  c74f8eb6-5570-4258-b86b-6e92eca1a09b   \n",
       "5281   prediction-request-reasoning  858c4497-836e-43e8-b234-868d3d542f0d   \n",
       "5978   prediction-request-reasoning  cb9b0663-3eea-43ec-b791-43f3d5946f91   \n",
       "13521  prediction-request-reasoning  f1d2af5e-b1ab-4818-94b7-14f8d6e8c5a1   \n",
       "\n",
       "                                   trader_address deliver_block  error  \\\n",
       "1301   0x04430ebfb7d088960233b7353cb4cefb528dc31e      36413276      1   \n",
       "4446   0x04430ebfb7d088960233b7353cb4cefb528dc31e      36403657      1   \n",
       "5281   0x04430ebfb7d088960233b7353cb4cefb528dc31e      36396742      1   \n",
       "5978   0x04430ebfb7d088960233b7353cb4cefb528dc31e      36405513      1   \n",
       "13521  0x04430ebfb7d088960233b7353cb4cefb528dc31e      36400080      1   \n",
       "\n",
       "                error_message prompt_response  ... confidence  info_utility  \\\n",
       "1301   Response parsing error                  ...        NaN           NaN   \n",
       "4446   Response parsing error                  ...        NaN           NaN   \n",
       "5281   Response parsing error                  ...        NaN           NaN   \n",
       "5978   Response parsing error                  ...        NaN           NaN   \n",
       "13521  Response parsing error                  ...        NaN           NaN   \n",
       "\n",
       "       vote  win_probability  market_creator  \\\n",
       "1301   None              NaN           pearl   \n",
       "4446   None              NaN           pearl   \n",
       "5281   None              NaN           pearl   \n",
       "5978   None              NaN           pearl   \n",
       "13521  None              NaN           pearl   \n",
       "\n",
       "                                                   title  currentAnswer  \\\n",
       "1301   Will Rivian produce more electric vehicles in ...             No   \n",
       "4446   Will the Dyson WashG1 wet floor cleaner reach ...             No   \n",
       "5281   Will the Dyson WashG1 wet floor cleaner reach ...             No   \n",
       "5978   Will Rivian produce more electric vehicles in ...             No   \n",
       "13521  Will Rivian produce more electric vehicles in ...             No   \n",
       "\n",
       "              request_time request_month_year request_month_year_week  \n",
       "1301   2024-10-09 07:16:50            2024-10   2024-10-07/2024-10-13  \n",
       "4446   2024-10-08 17:32:55            2024-10   2024-10-07/2024-10-13  \n",
       "5281   2024-10-08 07:38:25            2024-10   2024-10-07/2024-10-13  \n",
       "5978   2024-10-08 20:10:45            2024-10   2024-10-07/2024-10-13  \n",
       "13521  2024-10-08 12:25:15            2024-10   2024-10-07/2024-10-13  \n",
       "\n",
       "[5 rows x 23 columns]"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 18,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "target = tools_errors_pearl_reasoning_oct.loc[tools_errors_pearl_reasoning_oct[\"trader_address\"]==\"0x04430ebfb7d088960233b7353cb4cefb528dc31e\"]\n",
    "target.head()"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 22,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stderr",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "/var/folders/gp/02mb1d514ng739czlxw1lhh00000gn/T/ipykernel_17275/2686300214.py:2: SettingWithCopyWarning: \n",
      "A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.\n",
      "Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead\n",
      "\n",
      "See the caveats in the documentation: https://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/user_guide/indexing.html#returning-a-view-versus-a-copy\n",
      "  target['request_time'] = pd.to_datetime(target['request_time'])\n",
      "/var/folders/gp/02mb1d514ng739czlxw1lhh00000gn/T/ipykernel_17275/2686300214.py:6: SettingWithCopyWarning: \n",
      "A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.\n",
      "Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead\n",
      "\n",
      "See the caveats in the documentation: https://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/user_guide/indexing.html#returning-a-view-versus-a-copy\n",
      "  target['request_date'] = target['request_time'].dt.date\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "# Step 1: Convert 'request_time' to datetime\n",
    "target['request_time'] = pd.to_datetime(target['request_time'])\n",
    "\n",
    "# Step 2: Extract only the date\n",
    "# Option 1: Using .dt.date (results in Python date objects)\n",
    "target['request_date'] = target['request_time'].dt.date"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 24,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "request_date\n",
       "2024-10-08    29\n",
       "2024-10-09    10\n",
       "Name: count, dtype: int64"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 24,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "target.request_date.value_counts()"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 42,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "request_id                 6096315197620058968806130972169678143719505006...\n",
       "request_block                                                       36413260\n",
       "prompt_request             Please take over the role of a Data Scientist ...\n",
       "tool                                            prediction-request-reasoning\n",
       "nonce                                   f2016229-4284-4178-ba31-6d3d79c08db2\n",
       "trader_address                    0x04430ebfb7d088960233b7353cb4cefb528dc31e\n",
       "deliver_block                                                       36413276\n",
       "error                                                                      1\n",
       "error_message                                         Response parsing error\n",
       "prompt_response                                                             \n",
       "mech_address                      0x5e1d1eb61e1164d5a50b28c575da73a29595dff7\n",
       "p_yes                                                                    NaN\n",
       "p_no                                                                     NaN\n",
       "confidence                                                               NaN\n",
       "info_utility                                                             NaN\n",
       "vote                                                                    None\n",
       "win_probability                                                          NaN\n",
       "market_creator                                                         pearl\n",
       "title                      Will Rivian produce more electric vehicles in ...\n",
       "currentAnswer                                                             No\n",
       "request_time                                             2024-10-09 07:16:50\n",
       "request_month_year                                                   2024-10\n",
       "request_month_year_week                                2024-10-07/2024-10-13\n",
       "request_date                                                      2024-10-09\n",
       "Name: 1301, dtype: object"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 42,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "target.iloc[0]"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 27,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
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       "array(['60963151976200589688061309721696781437195050065672302545071004901874091643033',\n",
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       "       '37702190955051676132208606978682620139157915260199519916929970381323219753604',\n",
       "       '39569294324786741974231872134377826545140874888007473009293927983710957931560'],\n",
       "      dtype=object)"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 27,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "list_ids = target.request_id.values\n",
    "list_ids[:10]"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 43,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "array(['90593985923458899196810962386588286156538155570078296690881210441404684587554',\n",
       "       '68767283695784515860585993729057039088040186058017842377406754894591756511455',\n",
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       "       '107009206247715009517848578229257123443621203954825272856731050187387798698104',\n",
       "       '1791452603581598622819765450305918309250605837452864609167229991453595349104',\n",
       "       '83410164700209236856544326193231329461555897050465870148582616961224625051174',\n",
       "       '18800709011076966851620908913623693327374337392203674994417817827748941031712',\n",
       "       '52968186234915567486999518373725017068484409050337977059157445056559429258274',\n",
       "       '25079816768578500534050631284042535400266565749897206799037169746242652065181'],\n",
       "      dtype=object)"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 43,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "list_ids[11:20]"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 28,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
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       "      <td>6657538643069097666675831403759282242594505545...</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024-10-08</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>13521</th>\n",
       "      <td>5425044058976052235962273954205049658875702880...</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024-10-08</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>19109</th>\n",
       "      <td>6770666406121314451083377426288764710285960616...</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024-10-09</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>26394</th>\n",
       "      <td>9882802537427860483726914295813636736938924269...</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024-10-09</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>28451</th>\n",
       "      <td>7948766573310943370126776177067177745586006884...</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024-10-08</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>30496</th>\n",
       "      <td>3770219095505167613220860697868262013915791526...</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024-10-08</td>\n",
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       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>36292</th>\n",
       "      <td>3956929432478674197423187213437782654514087488...</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024-10-08</td>\n",
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       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>51084</th>\n",
       "      <td>8175211455282203482379491678632547763247823116...</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024-10-08</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>59234</th>\n",
       "      <td>9059398592345889919681096238658828615653815557...</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024-10-09</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>61875</th>\n",
       "      <td>6876728369578451586058599372905703908804018605...</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024-10-09</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>66420</th>\n",
       "      <td>3046370840213853955311148989354287332494514549...</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024-10-08</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>67950</th>\n",
       "      <td>1070092062477150095178485782292571234436212039...</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024-10-08</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>72643</th>\n",
       "      <td>1791452603581598622819765450305918309250605837...</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024-10-08</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>75088</th>\n",
       "      <td>8341016470020923685654432619323132946155589705...</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024-10-08</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>78791</th>\n",
       "      <td>1880070901107696685162090891362369332737433739...</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024-10-08</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>79145</th>\n",
       "      <td>5296818623491556748699951837372501706848440905...</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024-10-08</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>83216</th>\n",
       "      <td>2507981676857850053405063128404253540026656574...</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024-10-08</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>85167</th>\n",
       "      <td>7575008210195058310304416239166201007781878905...</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024-10-08</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>88188</th>\n",
       "      <td>9552646687631779229885168355150323079613443891...</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024-10-08</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>100246</th>\n",
       "      <td>4692241561430217878941029480346287939590785051...</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024-10-09</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>100677</th>\n",
       "      <td>7206378347489269040486803921098426780132051076...</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024-10-08</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>101088</th>\n",
       "      <td>1092955896466926617598161352358541141356344922...</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024-10-08</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>101210</th>\n",
       "      <td>1527068083956919475597593744421530347315167151...</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024-10-08</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>108656</th>\n",
       "      <td>1324300681984336956521266305617936389896556358...</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024-10-09</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>108846</th>\n",
       "      <td>8289032326759732887661005089261149134628471095...</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024-10-08</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>109312</th>\n",
       "      <td>5912452484774403202939990022063726888631215178...</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024-10-08</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>110341</th>\n",
       "      <td>6190847215316949218633078224850239375241342048...</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024-10-08</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>116511</th>\n",
       "      <td>1153012652040846748107002862035076676381200652...</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024-10-08</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>121108</th>\n",
       "      <td>1557391800733738917341431736907154545224724694...</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024-10-08</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>138827</th>\n",
       "      <td>2220225315128610064534249140893399020559732644...</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024-10-09</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>146315</th>\n",
       "      <td>1060705375579050874189318472528055944551818109...</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024-10-08</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>149805</th>\n",
       "      <td>5701187523179160021887695614981479044834603062...</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024-10-08</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>151939</th>\n",
       "      <td>6965041493166381160828548950817860788478600202...</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024-10-09</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>156075</th>\n",
       "      <td>1094553406895658377755024653190865186935248795...</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024-10-08</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>158713</th>\n",
       "      <td>2482181328413474980777782435770046521802662164...</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024-10-08</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>159533</th>\n",
       "      <td>7477199406563092998546889148948661086790369208...</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024-10-09</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </tbody>\n",
       "</table>\n",
       "</div>"
      ],
      "text/plain": [
       "                                               request_id request_date\n",
       "1301    6096315197620058968806130972169678143719505006...   2024-10-09\n",
       "4446    5354600326067223816020518930816563773467758113...   2024-10-08\n",
       "5281    2629357539419898379977886858224971150345341996...   2024-10-08\n",
       "5978    6657538643069097666675831403759282242594505545...   2024-10-08\n",
       "13521   5425044058976052235962273954205049658875702880...   2024-10-08\n",
       "19109   6770666406121314451083377426288764710285960616...   2024-10-09\n",
       "26394   9882802537427860483726914295813636736938924269...   2024-10-09\n",
       "28451   7948766573310943370126776177067177745586006884...   2024-10-08\n",
       "30496   3770219095505167613220860697868262013915791526...   2024-10-08\n",
       "36292   3956929432478674197423187213437782654514087488...   2024-10-08\n",
       "51084   8175211455282203482379491678632547763247823116...   2024-10-08\n",
       "59234   9059398592345889919681096238658828615653815557...   2024-10-09\n",
       "61875   6876728369578451586058599372905703908804018605...   2024-10-09\n",
       "66420   3046370840213853955311148989354287332494514549...   2024-10-08\n",
       "67950   1070092062477150095178485782292571234436212039...   2024-10-08\n",
       "72643   1791452603581598622819765450305918309250605837...   2024-10-08\n",
       "75088   8341016470020923685654432619323132946155589705...   2024-10-08\n",
       "78791   1880070901107696685162090891362369332737433739...   2024-10-08\n",
       "79145   5296818623491556748699951837372501706848440905...   2024-10-08\n",
       "83216   2507981676857850053405063128404253540026656574...   2024-10-08\n",
       "85167   7575008210195058310304416239166201007781878905...   2024-10-08\n",
       "88188   9552646687631779229885168355150323079613443891...   2024-10-08\n",
       "100246  4692241561430217878941029480346287939590785051...   2024-10-09\n",
       "100677  7206378347489269040486803921098426780132051076...   2024-10-08\n",
       "101088  1092955896466926617598161352358541141356344922...   2024-10-08\n",
       "101210  1527068083956919475597593744421530347315167151...   2024-10-08\n",
       "108656  1324300681984336956521266305617936389896556358...   2024-10-09\n",
       "108846  8289032326759732887661005089261149134628471095...   2024-10-08\n",
       "109312  5912452484774403202939990022063726888631215178...   2024-10-08\n",
       "110341  6190847215316949218633078224850239375241342048...   2024-10-08\n",
       "116511  1153012652040846748107002862035076676381200652...   2024-10-08\n",
       "121108  1557391800733738917341431736907154545224724694...   2024-10-08\n",
       "138827  2220225315128610064534249140893399020559732644...   2024-10-09\n",
       "146315  1060705375579050874189318472528055944551818109...   2024-10-08\n",
       "149805  5701187523179160021887695614981479044834603062...   2024-10-08\n",
       "151939  6965041493166381160828548950817860788478600202...   2024-10-09\n",
       "156075  1094553406895658377755024653190865186935248795...   2024-10-08\n",
       "158713  2482181328413474980777782435770046521802662164...   2024-10-08\n",
       "159533  7477199406563092998546889148948661086790369208...   2024-10-09"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 28,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "target[[\"request_id\", \"request_date\"]]"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 29,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "# Step 1: Convert 'request_time' to datetime\n",
    "tools['request_time'] = pd.to_datetime(tools['request_time'])\n",
    "\n",
    "# Step 2: Extract only the date\n",
    "# Option 1: Using .dt.date (results in Python date objects)\n",
    "tools['request_date'] = tools['request_time'].dt.date\n"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 31,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/html": [
       "<div>\n",
       "<style scoped>\n",
       "    .dataframe tbody tr th:only-of-type {\n",
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       "    }\n",
       "\n",
       "    .dataframe thead th {\n",
       "        text-align: right;\n",
       "    }\n",
       "</style>\n",
       "<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
       "  <thead>\n",
       "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th>request_id</th>\n",
       "      <th>request_date</th>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </thead>\n",
       "  <tbody>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>7</th>\n",
       "      <td>6000436570989704155944120385884952057858004900...</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024-10-11</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>11</th>\n",
       "      <td>1110041886165814728304049774267297117864784041...</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024-10-11</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>17</th>\n",
       "      <td>1540850207513454596143653889780703543734000659...</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024-10-12</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>32</th>\n",
       "      <td>7893228936705618570277338740495039782889689581...</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024-10-10</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>33</th>\n",
       "      <td>7526736795473306673180277838498078624434571449...</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024-10-08</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>...</th>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>162083</th>\n",
       "      <td>8155539169659776751020900439047793303819631815...</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024-10-13</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>162093</th>\n",
       "      <td>4091897651903844948533305264746058547870099773...</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024-10-09</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>162094</th>\n",
       "      <td>1060448907408309804546320958065157755251608511...</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024-10-12</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>162109</th>\n",
       "      <td>4235777061025284573352646490318646198795416762...</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024-10-07</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>162111</th>\n",
       "      <td>5209142730053796928793404697801186735890129172...</td>\n",
       "      <td>2024-10-07</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </tbody>\n",
       "</table>\n",
       "<p>20516 rows × 2 columns</p>\n",
       "</div>"
      ],
      "text/plain": [
       "                                               request_id request_date\n",
       "7       6000436570989704155944120385884952057858004900...   2024-10-11\n",
       "11      1110041886165814728304049774267297117864784041...   2024-10-11\n",
       "17      1540850207513454596143653889780703543734000659...   2024-10-12\n",
       "32      7893228936705618570277338740495039782889689581...   2024-10-10\n",
       "33      7526736795473306673180277838498078624434571449...   2024-10-08\n",
       "...                                                   ...          ...\n",
       "162083  8155539169659776751020900439047793303819631815...   2024-10-13\n",
       "162093  4091897651903844948533305264746058547870099773...   2024-10-09\n",
       "162094  1060448907408309804546320958065157755251608511...   2024-10-12\n",
       "162109  4235777061025284573352646490318646198795416762...   2024-10-07\n",
       "162111  5209142730053796928793404697801186735890129172...   2024-10-07\n",
       "\n",
       "[20516 rows x 2 columns]"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 31,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "tools.loc[tools[\"request_month_year_week\"]==\"2024-10-07/2024-10-13\"][[\"request_id\", \"request_date\"]]"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 35,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "request_date\n",
       "2024-10-20    4616\n",
       "2024-10-18    4474\n",
       "2024-10-17    4180\n",
       "2024-10-19    4093\n",
       "2024-09-10    4018\n",
       "              ... \n",
       "2024-09-21    1853\n",
       "2024-08-29    1700\n",
       "2024-09-15    1614\n",
       "2024-08-22    1421\n",
       "2024-10-21     742\n",
       "Name: count, Length: 61, dtype: int64"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 35,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "tools.request_date.value_counts()"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 37,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "object\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "print(tools['request_date'].dtype)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 41,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "array(['75267367954733066731802778384980786244345714492617935729431679575835641281777',\n",
       "       '84777531641003257941101275192333838936553813208125088407536800860673481676974',\n",
       "       '96220126533195686874770414750092684778689303224171939903636393563147529566805',\n",
       "       '85111692869695695070820477101480929103128037048651644814553376046710657331686',\n",
       "       '70955678141080262808382265854526736034962899352147754109605797381118648546015',\n",
       "       '89888925059941001916258915191647589006859959225855447761356001840604632558824',\n",
       "       '64072963113962902370586870420814897514043034924401758496712860053069476945214',\n",
       "       '49558713491944943262949682898061227957325052054046197143378203615269796493658',\n",
       "       '111138854287366484154634943297210669395092434185286519533898615765972894294967',\n",
       "       '63485197917885194773892649042188753341615679859375446649536109613725800096903'],\n",
       "      dtype=object)"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 41,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "tools['request_date'] = pd.to_datetime(tools['request_date'])\n",
    "oct_sample = tools.loc[(tools[\"request_date\"]==\"2024-10-08\") & (tools[\"error\"]!=1)]\n",
    "oct_sample.request_id.values[:10]"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": []
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": []
  }
 ],
 "metadata": {
  "kernelspec": {
   "display_name": "hf_dashboards",
   "language": "python",
   "name": "python3"
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  "language_info": {
   "codemirror_mode": {
    "name": "ipython",
    "version": 3
   },
   "file_extension": ".py",
   "mimetype": "text/x-python",
   "name": "python",
   "nbconvert_exporter": "python",
   "pygments_lexer": "ipython3",
   "version": "3.12.2"
  }
 },
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}